Market uncertainty increases in the year of monkey, or has the last drop-cibi

The year of the monkey to increase market uncertainty or there last fall hot column capital flows thousands of thousands of stocks the latest Rating Rating diagnosis simulated trading client – the first month of gold – Xiao Dan shares in 2016, still down PMI. In February 1st, the official announcement of PMI in January was 49.4, lower than expected by 49.6, down 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, and manufacturing has been shrinking for the 6 consecutive month. The new China manufacturing PMI, which was announced on the same day, was 48.4, higher than the expected 48.1, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and was shrinking for 11 consecutive months. Although the direction of the two PMI data slightly different, but pointed out that China’s economic growth is still in the downward trend. Although manufacturing PMI is in contraction, there are still some bright spots in economic activities, mainly in the aspect of consumption. In January, the PMI of consumer goods industry was 57.8, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, at an expansion level. 8.4 percentage points higher than the entire manufacturing PMI data. Consumer highlights are also reflected in the non manufacturing business activity index. January non manufacturing business activity index was 53.5, over the past few years has been in the expansion zone, indicating that China economic growth is still in the structural adjustment, the manufacturing industry in the contraction, the capacity to continue; sustained consumption growth is evolving as the main driving force to promote economic growth. Based on this, in 2016 China economic can not be too optimistic, too pessimistic expectations is not enough for the road. One factor of economic instability in the 2016 came from the dollar. There are several factors in the rise of the dollar, the first is that the US economy is stronger than other economies. US economic data, especially employment data, are beautiful, making the dollar a safe haven for international capital. Two is the dollar into the interest rate cycle, the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates. At the same time, other economies are still in need of a loose monetary environment, from Europe to japan. Three is the withdrawal of international capital from the international bulk commodity market, to the United states. The strong dollar also brings some problems. The dollar rose by more than 20% against the euro, and the yen rose more than double digits, even more exaggerated for the currencies of emerging markets, or by multiples. Such a strong dollar, reducing the U.S. manufacturing competitiveness in the international market, and had relatively low domestic inflation rate of us will have a greater pressure, and even the evolution of the danger of deflation. But commodity prices fell sharply, making it difficult for some countries to pay the purchase of goods to the United States, restricted the growth of the global economy, the United States will be adversely affected. With the appreciation of the dollar, inflation cooling, trade shrinkage, these are not conducive to the United States, but also against the U.S. dollar further strengthened. The Fed has to consider the negative impact of higher interest rates on the economy. The market had expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times in 2016, and now the expectations are very uncertain, and the market has been substantially revised. There are great uncertainties in many factors affecting the stock market in 2016. By the end of last year, we expect that there will be a seasonal rise in the stock market in early 2016

猴年市场不确定性加大 或还有最后一跌 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端    ■ 谈股论金    □晓旦    2016年的第一个月,PMI仍然下行。2月1日,官方公布的1月PMI为49.4,低于预期的49.6,比上个月下降0.3个百分点,制造业连续6个月处在收缩区间。同日公布的财新中国制造业PMI为48.4,高于预期的48.1,比上个月回升0.2个百分点,连续11个月处在收缩区间。虽然两个PMI数据的运行方向略有差异,但是都指明中国经济增长仍处在下行态势当中。    尽管制造业PMI处在收缩区间,但经济活动中仍有一些亮点,它们主要表现在消费方面。1月消费品行业PMI为57.8,比上月上升3.4个百分点,处于扩张水平。比整个制造业PMI数据高出8.4个百分点。消费亮点还表现在非制造业商务活动指数方面。1月非制造业商务活动指数为53.5,几年来一直处在扩张区间,这说明中国经济增长仍然在结构调整当中,制造业处在收缩中,去产能一直持续;消费持续增长,正在演变为推动经济增长的主要动力。基于此,2016年中国经济既不能太乐观,过于悲观的预期也是不足为道的。    2016年经济不稳定的一个因素来自美元。美元上涨有这样几个因素,一是美国经济表现强于其他经济体。美国经济数据特别是就业数据表现靓丽,令美元成为国际资本的避风港。二是美元进入加息周期,美联储已经启动加息。与此同时,其他经济体仍处在需要宽松的货币环境中,从欧洲到日本皆如此。三是国际资本纷纷撤出国际大宗商品市场,向美国流去。    美元强劲也带来一些问题。美元兑欧元上涨超过20%,兑日元上涨也超过双位数,兑新兴市场国家货币的上涨更为夸张,或以倍数计。这样的强势美元,降低了美国制造业在国际市场上的竞争力,同时原本就比较低的美国国内通胀率会有更大压力,甚至有演化为通货紧缩的危险。而且大宗商品价格大幅下跌,使得一些国家难以支付向美国购买商品,制约了全球经济增长,美国会受到不利影响。随着美元升值,通胀降温,贸易萎缩,这些都不利于美国,也不利于美元进一步走强。美联储不得不考虑加息对经济的负面影响。市场曾经预期美联储在2016年会加息四次,现在这种预期有了很大不确定性,市场或有大幅修正。    2016年影响股市的诸多因素有着很大不确定性。去年底,我们预期2016年初股市会有一个季节性上升过程,然后进行调整,现在看来这种预期过于乐观。新年伊始,股市大幅下挫,改变了投资者的预期值。在诸多不确定因素影响下,投资情绪趋于保守,股市即将进入猴年,或许是猴年猴市。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: